Lending to small- and medium-sized businesses is on the rise. It's something we've all been waiting for, and it should be the subject of rejoicing.
The £238m increase in lending to small and medium sized enterprises, or SMEs, in June is a sharp turnaround on declines of £476m in May and £641m in April.
In fact, June saw only the third rise in bank lending to SMEs since the data started in May 2011, according to the British Bankers' Association survey. Could it be that after several false starts, the government's funding for lending scheme is influencing bank behaviour?
More likely, a sense that the worst of the government's austerity measures and the eurozone crisis are behind us has made bank managers relax a little when requests for credit cross their mahogany desks.
Credit and confidence are the lifeblood of business investment and can evaporate just as quickly as they come together. George Osborne may not be planning extra taxes or local authority cuts, but the chancellor is almost freezing benefit payments, which will depress household incomes this year compared with last. Employers are also playing their part. Income Data Services says most pay rises are hitting 2.5%, which is still below the rate of inflation at 2.9%.
Only a rejuvenated eurozone can turn one month's figures into a sustainable upward trend, and that looks like an unrealistic prospect.
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